Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d0…c55a crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$172 (-1%) realized −$82 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day232.0pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$5,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$401
other 35% −$69
world 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 25% -5.7%
≤30d 12 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 25% -5.7%
≤90d 12 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 25% -5.7%
all 12 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 25% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 25% -5.7%
10% -26.6% 17% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -33.7% 8% -23.0%
20% -40.2% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$204 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,682
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day232.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2,600 $2,583 −$17 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $865 $817 −$48 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $750 $744 −$6 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 33¢ 32¢ $500 $479 −$21 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $357 $351 −$6 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,239 +$249 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $227 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $887 −$865 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,750 +$697 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,149 +$267 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,010 +$78 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $704 +$36 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1,207 +$79 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $553 −$84 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $816 −$65 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,681.74 · official $5,582.39 · 248 history records