Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d5…87f4 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-11%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$388
other 24% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -20.9% -28.4% 32% 32% -37.7%
≤30d 56 -20.9% -28.4% 32% 32% -37.7%
≤90d 56 -20.9% -28.4% 32% 32% -37.7%
all 56 -20.9% -28.4% 32% 32% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 32% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 32% -43.7%
15% -41.5% 29% -49.1%
20% -47.3% 29% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $71 −$70 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 −$16 -77%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 −$6 -13%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$15 +72%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $41 −$33 -82%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 −$6 -31%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$1 -5%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 +$17 +82%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$40 +197%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $21 +$122 +596%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $41 +$63 +156%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$18 -88%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$19 -91%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $61 −$60 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$11 +52%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$13 +65%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $61 −$60 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$21 +105%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $20 +$23 +114%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$63 +103%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -96%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $41 −$30 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$16 -78%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 45m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 46m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Jordan 6¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 25¢ $20 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $35 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $2 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $35 3h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $0 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $14 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $7 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $31 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 12¢ $7 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $19 5h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $20 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 5h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records