Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x66d5…de1a
weather · 86 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$559 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$571 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$263
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses70 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)80 / 86
History coverage20d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 6 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$89
14 days−$224
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 98¢ 100¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +4%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $85 −$8 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $113 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 08 $164 −$11 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 05 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $66 −$24 -37%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $83 +$2 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $168 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $23 +$1 +3%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $56 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $39 +$1 +4%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 02 $88 +$3 +3%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 01 $68 +$1 +2%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $93 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 01 $58 −$9 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $184 +$6 +3%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Jun 01 $171 +$6 +3%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $64 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $134 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 30% −$236
world 22% −$362
other 16% +$3
sports 16% +$12
politics 8% +$17
finance 4% −$3
culture 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? SELL No 88¢ $78 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY No 96¢ $85 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $37 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $70 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $59 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $66 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $97 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $60 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $86 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $54 7d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY No 98¢ $53 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? BUY Yes 98¢ $96 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? SELL Yes 80¢ $54 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.4% -13.5% 79% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 80 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 0% -15.4%
≤90d 80 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 0% -15.4%
all 80 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 0% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -15.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -23.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -30.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.33 · official $263.33 (match) · 181 history records