Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66d7…5b7b crypto 255 markets active 12h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31,839 (-8%) realized −$28,006 · open −$3,833
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%81W / 163L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,542per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$22,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,617
7 days+$2,574
14 days+$14,071
30 days+$11,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$19,977
world 36% −$13,054
other 0% +$196
sports 0% +$736
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.9% +3.0% 38% 38% +11.2%
≤30d 56 +98.4% +79.5% 43% 43% +19.8%
≤90d 91 +57.6% +42.6% 44% 44% +25.7%
all 244 +9.5% -0.9% 33% 33% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 33% -16.5%
10% -10.4% 33% -24.5%
15% -19.1% 32% -31.8%
20% -27.0% 31% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,770) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,420 vs −$1,376 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$22,484
Realized−$28,006
Unrealized−$3,833
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses81 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions11
Markets (closed)244 / 255
History coverage358d
Avg bet$1,542
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $10,250 $4,602 −$5,647 (-55%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $2,864 $4,333 +$1,469 (+51%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3,157 $2,910 −$247 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2,617 $2,586 −$31 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1,951 $2,132 +$181 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 45¢ 74¢ $1,263 $2,084 +$821 (+65%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $1,680 $1,564 −$117 (-7%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1,663 $1,298 −$365 (-22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $638 $812 +$174 (+27%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 21¢ $195 $129 −$66 (-34%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $286 +$714 +250%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $3,254 +$2,085 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $133 +$367 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $87 −$85 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,515 +$3,822 +252%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,694 −$2,582 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $255 −$250 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $950 −$50 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $1,459 −$1,382 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $1,257 +$2,504 +199%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $359 +$827 +231%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $365 +$1,133 +310%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $268 +$1,511 +564%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $390 −$372 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $19 +$380 +1958%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $246 +$786 +319%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,535 +$5,215 +340%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,202 −$1,137 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $106 +$553 +522%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 +$97 +3501%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $205 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $251 −$245 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 28 $105 +$95 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 28 $104 −$100 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 28 $338 −$317 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 28 $630 −$599 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 26 $244 −$238 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 26 $136 +$164 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 24 $678 −$646 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 24 $266 −$249 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $19 −$8 -41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $1,335 −$1,335 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 23 $1,321 −$1,255 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 23 $1,431 +$4,836 +338%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $2,925 +$2,763 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 22 $2,696 −$2,552 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 19 $1,034 −$973 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 19 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 19 $206 +$151 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 19 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 18 $208 +$263 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 18 $104 +$111 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $194 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $286 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $244 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $55 22h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 33h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 33h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $133 33h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $270 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $941 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 37h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 83¢ $5,337 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $315 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,484.33 · official $22,486.75 (match) · 2087 history records