Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

66 0x66d7…efa1 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+10.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+22.1%	+10.5%	67%	44%	+9.0%
≤30d	9	+22.1%	+10.5%	67%	44%	+9.0%
≤90d	9	+22.1%	+10.5%	67%	44%	+9.0%
all	9	+22.1%	+10.5%	67%	44%	+9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.5%	44%	+9.0%
10%	-0.1%	44%	-1.4%
15%	-9.7%	44%	-10.9%
20%	-18.6%	44%	-19.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$24	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$3	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 26	$17	+$11	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 26	$21	−$3	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 26	$41	+$2	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 26	$24	+$17	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 26	$28	−$18	-66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 26	$28	+$14	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 26	$27	+$1	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$21	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Down	38¢	$7	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$10	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$17	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	SELL Down	9¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	SELL Down	31¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	SELL Down	26¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$27	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records