Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x66da…817b other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$9 (+12%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$7
sports 24% +$4
crypto 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +45.9% +32.0% 56% 56% +27.1%
≤30d 31 +35.5% +22.6% 48% 48% +10.6%
≤90d 37 +25.4% +13.4% 43% 43% +4.8%
all 37 +25.4% +13.4% 43% 43% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 43% +4.8%
10% +2.6% 41% -5.2%
15% -7.3% 41% -14.4%
20% -16.4% 38% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +162%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$2 +158%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $2 $0 -22%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play May 14 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 25h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 26h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $1.03 (match) · 80 history records