Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x66da…69b0
sports · 210 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$787 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$840 · open +$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118
Realized−$840
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses84 / 124
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 210
History coverage32d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$99
14 days−$790
30 days−$860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $35 $70 +$35 (+100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 80¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+61%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Over 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$15 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$31 +158%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$12 +165%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$15 +105%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $11 +$9 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $4 +$6 +134%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$10 +101%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $9 +$11 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $15 +$15 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 +$8 +43%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $20 +$10 +52%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 07 $7 −$5 -70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $27 +$13 +48%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5) Jun 07 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 06 $14 −$12 -82%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $24 +$19 +81%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $15 −$2 -14%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5) Jun 03 $15 −$3 -21%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$14 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$3 +45%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $23 −$15 -65%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$713
crypto 1% −$41
other 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 4h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $0 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $0 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $9 18h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 18h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $8 23h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 38¢ $19 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 41h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 41h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 50¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY G2 46¢ $9 3d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) BUY Legacy 49¢ $10 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 50% +11.8%
≤30d 205 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 37% -21.3%
≤90d 208 -5.2% -14.2% 40% 37% -20.8%
all 208 -5.2% -14.2% 40% 37% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 37% -20.8%
10% -22.4% 36% -28.4%
15% -29.9% 35% -35.3%
20% -36.8% 33% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.27 · official $118.27 (match) · 672 history records