Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x66db…370f sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$178 (+14%) realized +$208 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$213
other 6% −$22
world 6% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +14.7% +3.8% 56% 56% +2.0%
≤30d 39 +14.7% +3.8% 56% 56% +2.0%
≤90d 39 +14.7% +3.8% 56% 56% +2.0%
all 39 +14.7% +3.8% 56% 56% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 56% +2.0%
10% -6.1% 56% -7.8%
15% -15.2% 56% -16.7%
20% -23.5% 51% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 49¢ $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 22¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 52¢ 38¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 +$28 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$36 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$46 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 +$65 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 +$54 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$97 +158%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 −$35 -50%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$12 -79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$13 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 +$11 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $13 +$12 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$9 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $10 42m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $10 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $46 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $61 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $30 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $71 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 32h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.67 · official $124.32 (match) · 74 history records