Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e0…b50e other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$675 (-10%) realized −$1,112 · open +$437
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$354
crypto 16% +$73
sports 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 40% -20.6%
≤30d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 40% -20.6%
≤90d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 40% -20.6%
all 20 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 40% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 40% -20.6%
10% -20.8% 35% -28.2%
15% -28.5% 30% -35.2%
20% -35.5% 25% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$183 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized−$1,112
Unrealized+$437
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 38¢ 99¢ $270 $707 +$437 (+162%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$53 +26%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$14 -28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $338 −$239 -71%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$48 -93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $605 −$447 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$74 -73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,741 −$914 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$298 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $389 +$47 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $540 +$396 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$55 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $255 7h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 8h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $237 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $99 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $159 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 32h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $218 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $98 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $827 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,075 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $666 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $389 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.60 · official $706.95 (match) · 47 history records