Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x66e7…8bcd
other · 468 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,891 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,375 · open +$147
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$29,701
Realized+$1,375
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions447
Markets (closed)30 / 468
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1675.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 447 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,375
7 days+$1,375
14 days+$1,375
30 days+$1,375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 82¢ $2,508 $2,724 +$217 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 52¢ $1,935 $1,639 −$296 (-15%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $840 $830 −$10 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 23¢ 16¢ $699 $506 −$193 (-28%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 59¢ $217 $313 +$95 (+44%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $295 $298 +$3 (+1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $289 $291 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $300 $289 −$12 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $276 $276 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $272 $274 +$2 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $171 $262 +$90 (+53%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $229 $232 +$3 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 89¢ 91¢ $227 $232 +$5 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $225 $229 +$3 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $218 $227 +$8 (+4%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $216 $219 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $213 $216 +$3 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $213 $215 +$2 (+1%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $209 $211 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $203 $207 +$5 (+2%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $208 $207 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 63¢ 65¢ $199 $205 +$6 (+3%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $194 $197 +$3 (+2%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 92¢ $197 $194 −$3 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $24 −$17 -71%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $134 +$22 +17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $212 +$67 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $271 −$23 -9%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $69 −$18 -26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $353 +$303 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $296 +$122 +41%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $14 +$2 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $340 +$76 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $91 +$17 +18%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -12%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $37 −$28 -77%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +1363%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $219 −$69 -31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $281 −$125 -44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $232 +$55 +24%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $49 +$333 +672%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $85 +$35 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $68 +$7 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $43 −$3 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $78 $0 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $58 +$3 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,032 +$372 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $648 +$132 +20%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $688 +$352 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $32 −$11 -34%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $492 −$120 -24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $124 −$92 -75%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$331
sports 21% +$1,441
crypto 2% +$16
world 1% −$288
politics 1% +$10
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $2 1m
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $13 2m
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $4 2m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 56¢ $11 5m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 55¢ $11 5m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 55¢ $11 6m
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $0 6m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 6m
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 6m
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 7m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $12 7m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 7m
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $37 7m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 8m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 9m
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9m
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9m
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 11m
Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $36 13m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 13m
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 61¢ $9 13m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 14m
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $3 16m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 17m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 17m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $14 17m
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes $0 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $10 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +62.5% +47.1% 57% 47% +11.2%
≤30d 30 +62.5% +47.1% 57% 47% +11.2%
≤90d 30 +62.5% +47.1% 57% 47% +11.2%
all 30 +62.5% +47.1% 57% 47% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1675.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.1% 47% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here +33.0% 33% +0.6%
15% +20.1% 23% -9.1%
20% +8.4% 13% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,701.05 · official $29,774.08 (match) · 3500 history records