Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66e8…100b sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-24%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$5
other 24% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 36% -33.5%
≤30d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 36% -33.5%
≤90d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 36% -33.5%
all 11 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 36% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 36% -33.5%
10% -21.4% 27% -39.9%
15% -29.0% 27% -45.7%
20% -36.0% 27% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Jun 28 $40 +$7 +18%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $20 +$19 +93%
South Africa vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -99%
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $3 +$15 +481%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +64%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama to score first vs. England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.84 · official $39.30 · 19 history records