Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
66 0x66ea…6791 sports 713 markets active 14h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,354 (-2%) realized −$5,416 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%357W / 348L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$3,415est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$12,245
other 16% +$3,013
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +21.7% +10.2% 55% 53% +4.3%
≤30d 303 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 48% -17.3%
≤90d 705 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 49% -12.3%
all 705 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 49% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 49% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 45% -20.7%
15% -25.9% 40% -28.3%
20% -33.2% 34% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$564) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$378 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$10,370
Realized−$5,416
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses357 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,415
Open positions8
Markets (closed)705 / 713
History coverage71d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $5,492 $5,522 +$30 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $3,500 $3,523 +$23 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $492 $487 −$5 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 32¢ $457 $450 −$7 (-2%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Dallas Wings 47¢ 46¢ $225 $223 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 41¢ 50¢ $104 $126 +$22 (+21%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $706 −$706 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $294 −$294 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $210 +$610 +291%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $97 +$255 +262%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $542 −$542 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $2,585 −$2,585 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $1,558 −$1,558 -100%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$50 +50%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $41 +$10 +25%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,055 +$741 +70%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $204 +$338 +166%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $665 −$665 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $101 +$93 +91%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $510 +$494 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $127 +$164 +129%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $421 +$522 +124%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $819 +$294 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $564 +$2,492 +442%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $617 +$802 +130%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $603 −$603 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $569 −$569 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $246 +$98 +40%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $247 +$55 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $83 +$291 +351%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $790 +$368 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $159 +$126 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,059 −$914 -86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $443 +$311 +70%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $508 +$503 +99%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $102 +$96 +93%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $2,029 +$2,461 +121%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $287 +$279 +97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $238 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $653 −$10 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $28 −$4 -13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $542 −$542 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $791 −$791 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $243 +$101 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $32 13h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 SELL Over 57¢ $26 18h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 55¢ $26 18h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 47¢ $229 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $5,507 24h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $294 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $466 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $706 42h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1,838 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $1,286 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $1,286 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $953 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 47¢ $99 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $161 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $27 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $29 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $8 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $33 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $12 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $35 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $16 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $21 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $21 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $18 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $24 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $26 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,369.72 · official $10,369.72 (match) · 2469 history records