Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66ec…2e58 world 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
other 39% $0
crypto 3% −$3
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 26 -7.7% -16.5% 31% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -10.4%
10% -24.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -38.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage475d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $37 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $75 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $37 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $115 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -39%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $14 $0 -3%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $10 22m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $27 22m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $14 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $17 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $3 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $13 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $21 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $25 14d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 14d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 15d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records