Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66f0…0d70 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$15
politics 40% −$19
sports 8% −$39
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 +1.9% -7.8% 6% 6% -9.6%
all 130 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 7% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage120d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $225 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $380 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $557 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $483 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $415 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $205 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $491 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 23h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 33h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 33h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 46h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 46h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 18d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.96 · official $76.96 (match) · 387 history records