Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x66f2…87e4 other 10 markets active 1d ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$910 (-26%) realized −$674 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$1,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$389
14 days−$389
30 days−$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$652
sports 4% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.9% -39.3% 40% 0% -32.0%
≤30d 6 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 0% -37.0%
≤90d 6 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 0% -37.0%
all 6 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 0% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 0% -37.0%
10% -50.2% 0% -43.0%
15% -55.1% 0% -48.5%
20% -59.5% 0% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$145 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,030
Realized−$674
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage23d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $400 $411 +$11 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $270 $232 −$38 (-14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $400 $225 −$175 (-44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $196 $161 −$35 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$21 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $511 −$278 -54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 +$11 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $512 +$25 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $217 −$153 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $360 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $127 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $194 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $211 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $80 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $239 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $126 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 40¢ $505 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 12¢ $64 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $115 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $278 23d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $577 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $247 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $201 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.94 · official $1,029.94 (match) · 48 history records