Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66f7…c691 crypto 1471 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,207 (+2%) realized +$1,208 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%1309W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days+$148
14 days+$57
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$447
sports 16% +$206
other 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 433 -0.8% -10.3% 89% 16% -8.4%
≤30d 1367 -1.6% -10.9% 89% 16% -10.0%
≤90d 1470 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 15% -9.7%
all 1470 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 15% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 9% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 6% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$31 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$1,208
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1309 / 161
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1470 / 1471
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $89 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $77 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $85 +$15 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $108 +$41 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $231 −$151 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $74 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $84 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 37m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 42m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 55m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $90 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $85 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $108 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $144 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.79 · official $88.79 (match) · 3500 history records