Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66f7…0168 sports 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%166W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$60
14 days+$61
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$2
crypto 25% −$34
other 15% +$13
politics 1% +$19
world 1% +$7
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +15.5% +4.5% 82% 59% -0.4%
≤30d 248 +6.5% -3.7% 65% 46% -7.7%
≤90d 268 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 43% -9.3%
all 268 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 43% -9.3%
10% -14.9% 26% -17.9%
15% -23.2% 19% -25.9%
20% -30.7% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses166 / 102
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)268 / 274
History coverage70d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 65¢ 70¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? No 94¢ 94¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 92¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 72¢ 70¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 10¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+105%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -20%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 $0 +17%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $9 +$2 +18%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -93%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$5 +82%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$8 +109%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $7 +$2 +24%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$1 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 +$8 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$26 +784%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +491%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4 $0 +13%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$2 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $10 16m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $10 51m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $9 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 72¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $12 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 99¢ $12 2h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 78¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 77¢ $7 2h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 98¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL No 99¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $12 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 100¢ $10 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 81¢ $8 6h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 85¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 76¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 76¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 85¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $9 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $11 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 84¢ $9 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $9 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 97¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.12 · official $75.13 (match) · 563 history records