Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66f9…1e01 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$336
14 days+$336
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$88
sports 26% −$118
other 4% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +5.3% -4.8% 39% 35% +1.4%
≤30d 31 +5.3% -4.8% 39% 35% +1.4%
≤90d 44 +4.1% -5.8% 41% 39% -8.2%
all 44 +4.1% -5.8% 41% 39% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 39% -8.2%
10% -14.8% 39% -17.0%
15% -23.1% 39% -25.0%
20% -30.6% 36% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$61 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage42d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $143 +$252 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $169 −$26 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $111 +$96 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $270 −$85 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $402 −$100 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$82 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$35 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$102 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$208 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$82 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$38 -36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $135 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $176 +$236 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $192 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$113 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $139 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$44 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $189 −$18 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$131 +250%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$222 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 12 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 12 $3 +$4 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 11 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $8 +$16 +194%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $427 −$166 -39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $145 −$67 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 11 $2 +$2 +107%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $76 +$47 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $217 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $122 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records