Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66f9…9520 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$796 (-11%) realized −$796 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$13
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$352
sports 19% −$439
other 1% −$3
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.9% -30.3% 43% 36% -15.9%
≤30d 25 -14.2% -22.3% 52% 40% -18.2%
≤90d 25 -14.2% -22.3% 52% 40% -18.2%
all 73 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 44% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 44% -19.9%
10% -27.7% 32% -27.6%
15% -34.7% 22% -34.6%
20% -41.1% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$52 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$796
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage132d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $81 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $77 −$58 -76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$32 -54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$47 +116%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 20 $140 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 20 $130 +$53 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 20 $451 −$189 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 20 $378 +$73 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 20 $364 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 20 $259 +$97 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 20 $200 −$86 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 20 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 20 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 20 $684 −$143 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$222 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 20 $90 +$33 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $350 −$43 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 20 $274 +$135 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Feb 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 18 $316 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 18 $284 +$32 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 18 $272 +$43 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $36 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3 BUY 13¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records