Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
66 0x66fb…6bb1 other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 289d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$132 (+5%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$274
14 days+$305
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$390
other 44% −$92
crypto 1% −$38
economics 1% −$38
world 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +13.1% +2.3% 39% 39% +4.8%
≤30d 58 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +5.4%
≤90d 58 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +5.4%
all 65 +29.2% +16.9% 38% 38% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 38% +2.9%
10% +5.7% 37% -7.0%
15% -4.5% 34% -16.0%
20% -13.9% 31% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$19 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage289d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 +$120 +118%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$182 +90%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$4 +414%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $65 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 +$25 +241%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 −$85 -84%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -95%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -84%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $7 +$34 +474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -91%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $15 +$24 +165%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $401 +$48 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $107 −$92 -85%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 +$26 +26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 +$26 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $181 +$47 +26%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -88%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 −$3 -2%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1469%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 21m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 21m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 16h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 39¢ $65 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.52 · official $107.52 (match) · 117 history records