Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
67 0x6700…0347 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+53%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$35
crypto 33% +$7
other 19% +$14
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +57.1% +42.2% 73% 73% +39.3%
≤30d 15 +57.1% +42.2% 73% 73% +39.3%
≤90d 15 +57.1% +42.2% 73% 73% +39.3%
all 15 +57.1% +42.2% 73% 73% +39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.2% 73% +39.3%
10% +28.6% 67% +26.0%
15% +16.1% 60% +13.8%
20% +4.7% 60% +2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.64 per $1 lost it wins $6.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +139%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 +$10 +121%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -77%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +246%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$7 +20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +94%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 81¢ $2 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 33¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 16h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $15 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 56¢ $1 18h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.04 · official $5.04 (match) · 35 history records