Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x6703…9dc5 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 675d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized −$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 675d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$7
world 12% +$4
crypto 6% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -51.2% -55.9% 20% 20% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.9% 20% -36.0%
10% -60.1% 20% -42.1%
15% -64.0% 20% -47.7%
20% -67.5% 0% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage675d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 42¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? Sep 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Pavel Durov released in August? Sep 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30? Sep 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran military response by Friday? Aug 28 $10 +$4 +45%
U.S. military action against Iran by August 31? Aug 13 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 42¢ $31 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 655d
Pavel Durov released in August? BUY No 63¢ $5 660d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 660d
Iran military response by Friday? BUY No 69¢ $10 675d
U.S. military action against Iran by August 31? SELL No 91¢ $10 675d
U.S. military action against Iran by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $10 675d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.27 · official $128.27 (match) · 11 history records