Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6705…faa9 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,522 (-30%) realized −$16,522 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate85%33W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,346per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days−$16,574
14 days−$16,574
30 days−$16,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$16,524
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.9% -33.8% 60% 30% -11.9%
≤30d 10 -26.9% -33.8% 60% 30% -11.9%
≤90d 10 -26.9% -33.8% 60% 30% -11.9%
all 39 -7.3% -16.2% 85% 13% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 13% -11.6%
10% -24.2% 8% -20.1%
15% -31.5% 5% -27.8%
20% -38.2% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$2,923 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$16,522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses33 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage236d
Avg bet$1,346
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,021 +$28 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,251 +$28 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 +$82 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21,604 −$17,475 -81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21,990 +$756 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $151 +$1 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28? Feb 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $170? Feb 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $175? Feb 21 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 31 $131 +$15 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $128 +$4 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 28 $127 +$1 +1%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $123 +$4 +3%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Nov 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 24 $22 +$1 +2%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $80 +$26 +33%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31? Nov 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14? Nov 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by Novembe Nov 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%? Nov 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? Nov 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01? Nov 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 01 $20 $0 +1%
Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $60 +$3 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will a candidate win outright in Ireland’s first round? Oct 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 26 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,049 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 45¢ $11 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,251 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $180 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $70 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $17 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 153 history records