Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6706…2341 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized −$3 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$14
other 8% −$2
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 35% -12.7%
≤30d 17 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 35% -12.7%
≤90d 17 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 35% -12.7%
all 17 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 35% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 35% -21.0%
15% -32.7% 24% -28.7%
20% -39.3% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)17 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 46¢ 46¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 37¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 71¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 28¢ 100¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+258%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 84¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 16¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 83¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $9 +$5 +53%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $4 59m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 45¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $4 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 46¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 43¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 3h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 84¢ $7 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $5 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.83 · official $98.83 (match) · 150 history records