Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x670c…ddac other 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 248L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 21% −$17
politics 9% −$10
crypto 7% −$3
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$10
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage140d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $965 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $204 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $720 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $815 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $353 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $589 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $347 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $125 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $451 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $362 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 2h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 8h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 12h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 13h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 14h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 16h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 20h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 32h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 33h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 38h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 40h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 45h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1468 history records