Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x670c…deb4 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$19
politics 39% −$19
sports 7% +$18
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -2.2% -11.5% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage127d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $187 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,405 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $427 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $196 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $227 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $190 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $448 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $385 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $419 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $254 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $180 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $398 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 7h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 17d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $33 18d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $33 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 22d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $187 22d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $187 23d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $242 23d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $242 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $239 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $239 28d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $204 29d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $204 30d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $201 31d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $201 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 443 history records