Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x670d…3f3f world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$187 · open −$165
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$149
14 days+$36
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$214
other 29% −$552
crypto 10% +$15
politics 7% +$80
finance 4% +$60
tech 2% −$21
sports 1% +$109
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.9% -24.0% 43% 43% -36.9%
≤30d 18 +61.9% +46.5% 50% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 47 +38.3% +25.1% 49% 43% -2.3%
all 90 +14.5% +3.6% 44% 39% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 39% -7.4%
10% -6.3% 30% -16.2%
15% -15.4% 27% -24.3%
20% -23.7% 23% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$35 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage222d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $44 $36 −$8 (-17%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 30¢ $55 $33 −$22 (-40%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-77%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Yes $20 $3 −$17 (-87%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 50¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 26 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 26 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$7 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 21 $101 −$22 -21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$39 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$156 +1521%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 12 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $150 +$12 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$13 -20%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $50 +$16 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 26 $51 +$60 +118%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 25 $102 −$9 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 22 $51 +$29 +58%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 20 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 15 $51 −$32 -63%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $52 +$141 +274%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $50 +$122 +245%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $40 +$314 +785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 01 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 01 $6 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 01 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 01 $16 −$15 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 30 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 30 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $38 +$19 +49%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $51 +$56 +108%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $62 −$36 -58%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Apr 07 $50 +$10 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $50 +$10 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 4d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $43 4d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $56 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $80 5d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 9d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 14d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $61 14d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $55 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $116 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $53 14d
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 29¢ $28 20d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $51 20d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 20d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 32d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 51¢ $93 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.09 · official $261.09 (match) · 351 history records