Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6711…1485 crypto 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+4%) realized +$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%205W / 192L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$11
14 days−$43
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$16
sports 19% −$121
crypto 14% −$1
world 2% +$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.1% -28.6% 39% 39% -1.4%
≤30d 208 -17.4% -25.2% 38% 36% -16.2%
≤90d 397 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 50% -6.7%
all 397 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 50% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 50% -6.7%
10% -20.0% 44% -15.7%
15% -27.7% 35% -23.8%
20% -34.8% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses205 / 192
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 402
History coverage87d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN Jun 18 $5 +$10 +212%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $22 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $12 +$17 +142%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 Jun 12 $17 −$4 -23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 Jun 12 $17 +$14 +80%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +190%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 −$4 -64%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $13 −$6 -49%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR - Map 3 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? Jun 06 $29 −$16 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 168.5 May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 29 $25 −$1 -2%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06- BUY 28¢ $7 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 31¢ $5 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Cô BUY 34¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $7 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Austra BUY 27¢ $17 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $15 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Aus BUY 20¢ $16 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 66¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 41¢ $12 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 19¢ $15 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 SELL 34¢ $13 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 43¢ $17 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 BUY 63¢ $7 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 BUY 50¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 55¢ $10 7d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $7.00 · 961 history records