Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6712…f260 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% $0
other 4% +$1
sports 3% −$12
politics 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 15 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 13% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 13% -11.4%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage490d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 01 $3 $0 +17%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 26 $11 +$1 +13%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $30 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $39 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $40 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $40 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $40 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $40 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.08 · official $36.08 (match) · 50 history records