Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6714…9a71 sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-14%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%226W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$56
14 days−$329
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$49
crypto 32% −$55
other 30% −$118
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.2% -15.1% 77% 31% -21.3%
≤30d 157 -70.7% -73.5% 24% 11% -47.2%
≤90d 157 -70.7% -73.5% 24% 11% -47.2%
all 353 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 56% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 56% -27.5%
10% -23.0% 48% -34.4%
15% -30.5% 39% -40.8%
20% -37.3% 29% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses226 / 127
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)353 / 353
History coverage156d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 353 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$34 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Muzammil Murtaza vs Rafael De Alba Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ulster win? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $35 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 729 history records