Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6714…e4f7 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$220 (-40%) realized −$296 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$25
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$281
sports 34% +$155
crypto 11% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% -56.7%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% -56.7%
all 20 -3.3% -12.6% 50% 50% -54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -54.5%
10% -20.9% 45% -58.9%
15% -28.6% 45% -62.9%
20% -35.6% 40% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$31 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage139d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 100¢ $80 $156 +$76 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 +$29 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $258 −$252 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 10 $14 +$7 +50%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $81 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 39¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Endrick: 1+ goals AND S BUY 18¢ $5 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 11d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 12d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $258 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $26 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 18d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 22d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 70¢ $12 22d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 75¢ $13 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 139d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $20 139d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $14 139d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.08 · official $160.99 · 44 history records