Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6717…d6eb sports 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,459 (+8%) realized +$3,462 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%267W / 212L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$538est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$611
7 days−$662
14 days+$559
30 days+$2,756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,892
other 3% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 335 +12.8% +2.0% 58% 57% -1.1%
≤90d 479 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% -3.0%
all 479 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 56% -3.0%
10% -11.8% 56% -12.3%
15% -20.4% 55% -20.8%
20% -28.2% 51% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$79 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$3,462
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses267 / 212
Est. fees paid−$538
Open positions6
Markets (closed)479 / 485
History coverage50d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Martos: Emile Hudd vs Joao Domingues Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Messina: Fausto Tabacco vs Christian Sigsgaard Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$84 +165%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $101 +$84 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $101 +$91 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $51 +$80 +158%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $51 +$65 +129%
ITF Monastir: Diego Fernandez Flores vs Dominick Mosejczuk Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $101 +$71 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $101 +$74 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $101 +$63 +62%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Pedro Rodrigues vs Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Matei Florin Breazu vs Julio Cesar Porras Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Timo Legout Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $51 +$68 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Buse 51¢ $101 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $101 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $51 18h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 37¢ $51 18h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 67¢ $101 19h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 59¢ $101 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $101 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $101 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $51 24h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 42h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $101 42h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $101 42h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 28¢ $51 43h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $101 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 45h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 45h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 46h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $101 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 3d
ITF Martos: Emile Hudd vs Joao Domingues BUY Emile Hudd 59¢ $101 3d
ITF Monastir: Diego Fernandez Flores vs Dominick Mosejczuk BUY Dominick Mosejczuk 57¢ $101 3d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 38¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.16 · official $445.16 (match) · 965 history records