Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x6717…b47e other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$11
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$24
sports 25% +$70
crypto 4% +$49
finance 4% −$73
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 57% -9.9%
≤30d 29 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 62% -9.2%
≤90d 31 -0.8% -10.3% 74% 65% -8.3%
all 35 -2.2% -11.5% 74% 60% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 60% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 40% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 26% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 23% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$82 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage130d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$25 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$40 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$17 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $851 +$47 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $503 +$114 +23%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea May 03 $100 +$12 +12%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? May 03 $100 +$27 +27%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 13 $200 +$5 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 07 $200 +$12 +6%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 05 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 24h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.41 · official $299.41 (match) · 76 history records