trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $44 | $44 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 10 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $14 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $64 | −$1 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $40 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jun 27 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 24 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? | May 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | May 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | May 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | May 17 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 17 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 16 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po | May 15 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | May 15 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 14 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11? | May 14 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi | May 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? | May 08 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 25 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 44% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.3% |