Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
67 0x671a…cf16 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$863 (+24%) realized +$883 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$1,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$819
sports 16% +$1,124
world 3% −$16
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +66.6% +50.7% 21% 21% +44.5%
≤30d 56 +66.6% +50.7% 21% 21% +44.5%
≤90d 56 +66.6% +50.7% 21% 21% +44.5%
all 56 +66.6% +50.7% 21% 21% +44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.7% 21% +44.5%
10% ← realistic here +36.3% 20% +30.6%
15% +23.1% 20% +18.0%
20% +11.0% 20% +6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +76% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$28 · ×9.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,055
Realized+$883
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions19
Markets (closed)56 / 98
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $75 $63 −$12 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+38%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-44%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$133 +1290%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$229 +1488%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 +$36 +100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $74 −$72 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$504 +980%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 +$592 +577%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $43 −$42 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$53 -51%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo V Jun 16 $10 +$1,102 +10703%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$16 -16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$77 +251%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 +$76 +135%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 −$54 -66%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$143 +279%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 3¢ $15 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY 2¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 3¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $245 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 3¢ $15 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 2¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 17h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 19¢ $72 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,054.88 · official $1,094.88 · 195 history records