Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x671b…9a07 other 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,552 (-0%) realized −$2,207 · open −$1,345
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate77%153W / 46L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,469per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$5,277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,759
crypto 42% −$12,389
sports 7% −$9,925
world 4% +$468
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -24.0% -31.3% 69% 18% -8.7%
≤30d 79 -16.9% -24.8% 73% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 145 -11.8% -20.2% 73% 13% -9.5%
all 199 -9.2% -17.8% 77% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 10% -10.6%
10% -25.7% 2% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -32.9% 1% -27.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$7,729) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$1,022 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$5,277
Realized−$2,207
Unrealized−$1,345
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses153 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions4
Markets (closed)199 / 195
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$5,469
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 70¢ 47¢ $3,456 $2,322 −$1,134 (-33%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 55¢ 52¢ $1,769 $1,653 −$117 (-7%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 69¢ $1,265 $1,206 −$59 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $132 $97 −$35 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $12,304 +$568 +5%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $12,931 −$12,808 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,460 −$1,328 -54%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $17,235 +$706 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,912 +$119 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25,329 +$247 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19,785 +$1,126 +6%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $286 +$18 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22,865 +$196 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6,049 −$4,266 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21,616 +$2,720 +13%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,201 +$42 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,419 +$446 +18%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $3,969 +$88 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,921 +$100 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $7,729 +$472 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15,750 +$761 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $3,437 +$21 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14,628 +$773 +5%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $101 −$87 -86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14,100 +$1,049 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,076 −$4,618 -76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18,540 +$125 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $509 −$508 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $510 −$401 -78%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17,705 +$2,350 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17,254 +$405 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12,209 +$2,144 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $244 +$2 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,496 +$128 +4%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,552 +$129 +5%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3,271 +$516 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,876 +$140 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,961 +$39 +1%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $890 +$37 +4%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,956 +$76 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,718 +$708 +10%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $612 +$96 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$14 -82%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,214 +$380 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,022 +$50 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $109 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,910 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $10,011 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $65 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $146 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $485 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $485 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $146 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $376 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,490 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $960 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $257 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $769 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,002 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,277.34 · official $5,277.51 (match) · 3500 history records