Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x671e…6312 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 18% $0
politics 7% −$13
sports 6% +$11
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -10.8%
all 25 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 8% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 8% -10.8%
10% -19.1% 4% -19.3%
15% -26.9% 4% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage484d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $86 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 −$5 -88%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb Mar 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelensk Feb 28 $21 −$14 -66%
Chattanooga vs. UNC Greensboro Feb 27 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Feb 27 $22 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Feb 21 $10 +$12 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 8h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $39 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $39 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $1 16d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.55 · official $28.55 (match) · 68 history records