trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -9.2% | -17.8% | 9% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -9.2% | -17.8% | 9% | 0% | -10.8% |
| all | 25 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 48% | 8% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 8% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 4% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 4% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 4% | -34.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | $28 | $29 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $78 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 06 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $51 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 01 | $48 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $5 | −$5 | -88% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 28 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will TikTok be banned again before May? | Apr 17 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Apr 14 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 13 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb | Mar 21 | $7 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelensk | Feb 28 | $21 | −$14 | -66% |
| Chattanooga vs. UNC Greensboro | Feb 27 | $22 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? | Feb 27 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Grizzlies vs. Pacers | Feb 21 | $10 | +$12 | +113% |