Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

67 0x671e…2536 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$114 (-2%) realized −$408 · open +$294

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate29%8W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$167per market

Trades / day14.7pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$352

7 days−$432

14 days−$432

30 days−$432

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-27.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	-19.3%	-27.0%	29%	14%	-19.4%
≤30d	28	-19.3%	-27.0%	29%	14%	-19.4%
≤90d	28	-19.3%	-27.0%	29%	14%	-19.4%
all	28	-19.3%	-27.0%	29%	14%	-19.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.0%	14%	-19.4%
10%	-34.0%	14%	-27.1%
15%	-40.3%	7%	-34.2%
20%	-46.2%	4%	-40.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late -40% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$38 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$719

Realized−$408

Unrealized+$294

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses8 / 20

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions3

Markets (closed)28 / 31

History coverage7d

Avg bet$167

Trades / day14.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	55¢	96¢	$400	$695	+$295 (+74%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	40¢	39¢	$13	$12	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	29¢	29¢	$12	$12	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$423	+$126	+30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$514	−$90	-18%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$251	+$21	+8%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	Jun 15	$896	−$250	-28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$443	+$3	+1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 14	$461	+$25	+5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$442	+$19	+4%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$11	−$4	-39%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$8	−$7	-86%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$26	−$25	-98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$21	−$19	-91%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$106	+$24	+22%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$21	−$5	-26%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 13	$72	−$32	-44%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 13	$41	−$20	-49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$155	−$43	-28%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$239	−$51	-22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 13	$67	−$22	-32%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 13	$9	−$8	-84%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 13	$91	+$36	+40%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$13	+$66	+525%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$19	−$12	-62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$60	−$41	-68%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 12	$122	−$76	-62%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 12	$26	−$6	-23%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 11	$43	−$18	-41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	40¢	$13	3m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	29¢	$12	18m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	4¢	$25	27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$22	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$11	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$60	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	24¢	$25	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	55¢	$405	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$550	14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$423	15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	71¢	$424	15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	85¢	$514	15h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia?	SELL No	99¢	$272	15h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY No	91¢	$251	15h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	SELL No	99¢	$453	16h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY No	99¢	$25	16h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY No	29¢	$128	16h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	37¢	$255	17h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	SELL No	75¢	$1	18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	SELL No	76¢	$446	18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY No	82¢	$488	18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL No	92¢	$446	18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY No	91¢	$443	18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	100¢	$486	19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	95¢	$461	20h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	SELL No	99¢	$461	20h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	BUY No	95¢	$442	21h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	26¢	$8	35h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	SELL Yes	8¢	$7	36h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.05 · official $719.05 (match) · 103 history records