Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6720…1188 politics 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$156 (+1%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 41% −$203
sports 6% +$181
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 124 +4.1% -5.9% 6% 6% -9.9%
all 141 +12.3% +1.6% 11% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 9% -9.6%
10% -8.1% 7% -18.3%
15% -17.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -25.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×7.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage116d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $420 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $372 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $367 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $378 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $423 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $229 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $205 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $352 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 37h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 37h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 27d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 30d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $231 30d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $231 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $188 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $188 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $219 32d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records