Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6724…84ef
politics · 259 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses56 / 198
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)254 / 259
History coverage136d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 5 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $38 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$6
other 29% −$7
sports 11% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
world 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $7 22m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $8 7h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $10 7h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $10 10h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 12h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 12h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 12h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $8 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 87 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 164 -0.7% -10.1% 18% 0% -10.0%
all 254 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 1365 history records