Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x6727…231d sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,131 (+19%) realized +$460 · open +$671
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$1,197
other 28% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 43% +11.3%
≤30d 14 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 43% +11.3%
≤90d 14 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 43% +11.3%
all 14 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 43% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 43% +11.3%
10% -5.2% 43% +0.7%
15% -14.4% 43% -9.1%
20% -22.8% 36% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$213 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,944
Realized+$460
Unrealized+$671
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? No 48¢ 100¢ $582 $1,212 +$630 (+108%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 80¢ $570 $609 +$39 (+7%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $123 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $419 −$414 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,353 +$517 +38%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $661 −$653 -99%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $113 −$113 -100%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $78 −$76 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,086 +$1,183 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $175 −$171 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $47 +$75 +158%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $63 +$149 +238%
Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) Jun 18 $29 +$71 +250%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $437 +$562 +129%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 17 $17 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 56¢ $123 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $48 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $123 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $543 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $11 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $13 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $34 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $28 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $289 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $247 10h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $649 28h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $6 28h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $6 29h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 41¢ $104 29h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $22 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $287 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $288 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $756 31h
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) BUY Coalesce 47¢ $78 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $26 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $178 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $437 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $444 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $175 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,943.71 · official $1,943.71 (match) · 46 history records