Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6728…4ce2 crypto 1019 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,241 (-9%) realized −$1,328 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate57%581W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$19
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$573
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 35% 4% -9.7%
≤30d 154 -19.1% -26.8% 25% 4% -11.8%
≤90d 691 -19.0% -26.7% 48% 10% -12.1%
all 1017 -15.1% -23.2% 57% 18% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 18% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 3% -22.0%
15% -37.2% 2% -29.5%
20% -43.4% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses581 / 436
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1017 / 1019
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1017 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Up 2¢ 48¢ $4 $73 +$69 (+1924%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET Down 11¢ 50¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+353%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $43 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.85 · official $95.85 (match) · 3500 history records