Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x672e…0207 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
world 21% $0
politics 12% −$4
sports 11% $0
crypto 10% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage264d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $86 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $16 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $22 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $23 −$4 -17%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $88 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $22 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $7 −$4 -56%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 30m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 30m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $8 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $26 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 40h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $38 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $38 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $27 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $34 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $38 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records