Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6732…d6d9 other 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%26W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 26% −$8
politics 22% −$3
crypto 8% $0
culture 6% +$1
economics 5% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 174 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses26 / 148
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage174d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $223 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $86 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $155 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $206 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $97 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $252 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $91 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 28 $44 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 8d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $37 16d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $37 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $38 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $38 29d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $48 41d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $48 41d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 79d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 79d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $49 79d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $49 79d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 79d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $37 80d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $36 80d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $36 80d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 80d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 80d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $36 80d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $36 80d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 80d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $38 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $37 81d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $37 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 662 history records