Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
67 0x6733…a383 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$48 (+11%) realized +$41 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$68
crypto 6% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +72.9% +56.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
≤30d 5 +72.9% +56.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
≤90d 5 +72.9% +56.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
all 5 +72.9% +56.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.4% 100% +60.1%
10% +41.5% 80% +44.8%
15% +27.8% 80% +30.8%
20% +15.3% 60% +18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $75 $84 +$10 (+13%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.19 · official $253.19 (match) · 16 history records