Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x673d…1247 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-3%) realized +$98 · open −$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%47W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$196
14 days−$227
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$200
other 16% −$270
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +34.5% +21.7% 75% 31% -15.3%
≤30d 63 +27.9% +15.7% 75% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 63 +27.9% +15.7% 75% 33% -15.3%
all 63 +27.9% +15.7% 75% 33% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 33% -15.3%
10% +4.6% 16% -23.4%
15% -5.5% 11% -30.8%
20% -14.7% 8% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$34 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$234
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses47 / 16
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage25d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 −$87 -69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $125 +$2 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 +$5 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $175 +$38 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$23 +92%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $106 −$6 -6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$2 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $226 +$4 +2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $151 +$12 +8%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $147 −$146 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $75 +$14 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $77 +$10 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $113 −$11 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 +$19 +25%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $152 +$6 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $151 −$5 -3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $165 +$4 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $75 +$8 +11%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 +$4 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 +$15 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$6 -63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +39%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$36 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $117 −$77 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 13¢ $9 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 13¢ $15 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 13¢ $1 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $16 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $9 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $10 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $20 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $25 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $25 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $25 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 14m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $31 30m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 31m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 31m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $39 54m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 46¢ $54 55m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 59m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 59m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 68¢ $54 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $16 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 39¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.42 (match) · 467 history records