Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x673e…b0d0 sports 854 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$511 (+8%) realized +$514 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%314W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days−$60
14 days−$223
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -11.3% -19.7% 38% 36% -17.7%
≤30d 288 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 35% -17.6%
≤90d 851 -10.5% -19.0% 37% 35% -18.5%
all 851 -10.5% -19.0% 37% 35% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 35% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 34% -26.3%
15% -33.9% 32% -33.4%
20% -40.3% 31% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses314 / 537
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions3
Markets (closed)851 / 854
History coverage88d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 34¢ 100¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+194%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Amaru Gaming 50¢ 58¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 337 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $14 +$23 +162%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $14 +$20 +142%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $22 +$35 +162%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $7 +$14 +197%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $7 +$9 +118%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $14 +$25 +178%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$13 +184%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $35 +$32 +94%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 +$17 +117%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$21 -51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$8 +123%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$14 -44%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$10 +134%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$6 +89%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$4 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$21 -74%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$6 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $22 −$7 -30%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$12 +170%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +69%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$11 +145%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$14 -44%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$22 -75%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$7 -24%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $37 −$14 -37%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $38 −$32 -82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$18 +250%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$3 +24%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $49 −$14 -29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$7 -60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$9 -38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$6 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$12 +165%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 50¢ $7 9m
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL DRX Academy 100¢ $38 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $23 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 39¢ $7 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 36¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 34¢ $7 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $18 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $7 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $34 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $6 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $57 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 20¢ $7 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $21 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 36¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 45¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $7 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $7 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $7 7h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 30¢ $7 15h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 43¢ $7 16h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Evictix 49¢ $7 16h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 34¢ $7 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 34¢ $7 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 49¢ $8 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $7 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $7 26h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 50¢ $7 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.12 · official $29.12 (match) · 2066 history records