Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
67 0x673e…3186 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$695 (-5%) realized −$680 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$1,505
14 days+$1,504
30 days+$1,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,236
politics 20% +$273
crypto 19% −$465
sports 7% +$159
world 5% −$46
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +39.0% +25.8% 45% 45% +46.3%
≤30d 13 +32.1% +19.6% 38% 38% +46.1%
≤90d 13 +32.1% +19.6% 38% 38% +46.1%
all 60 -6.8% -15.7% 32% 32% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 32% +3.2%
10% -23.7% 28% -6.7%
15% -31.1% 27% -15.7%
20% -37.9% 27% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$65 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 83
History coverage600d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$398 +388%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $260 −$231 -89%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $204 +$309 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$92 +91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 09 $22 +$27 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $76 −$10 -13%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 05 $50 −$2 -5%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $200 −$92 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 05 $18 +$81 +452%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 05 $36 +$69 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 04 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 04 $127 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 04 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 04 $109 +$259 +239%
Will Solana dip to $120 in January? Feb 04 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 30 $702 −$252 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 24 Jan 24 $176 −$176 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 24 $39 +$61 +156%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $35 +$65 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 20 $40 +$60 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 19 $41 −$23 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $53 +$87 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 17¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $144 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $550 12h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 45¢ $508 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $607 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $510 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $146 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 6¢ $103 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 7¢ $103 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $204 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $103 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 5¢ $103 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026- BUY 5¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.00 · official $435.00 · 338 history records