Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x673f…9eab world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1
other 27% $0
sports 3% +$1
weather 3% −$2
politics 2% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.6% 20% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -1.1% -10.6% 20% 7% -9.9%
all 32 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 9% -9.2%
10% -21.0% 6% -17.9%
15% -28.7% 6% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage476d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $96 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $49 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ding Liren win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 20 $18 $0 -2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $3 $0 -5%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 20 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Trump Media invest in Bitcoin before March? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 01 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $13 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $45 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records