Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6741…2b47 sports 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$177 (-2%) realized −$223 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate48%183W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$22
14 days−$39
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$117
sports 20% −$77
other 20% −$10
politics 11% −$13
crypto 7% −$18
finance 7% +$6
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% +$6
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.1% -11.5% 73% 27% -13.3%
≤30d 293 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 26% -12.5%
≤90d 385 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 22% -12.5%
all 385 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 22% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 22% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 12% -20.8%
15% -27.9% 4% -28.5%
20% -34.9% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$223
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses183 / 202
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions26
Markets (closed)385 / 411
History coverage46d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $24 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 78¢ 92¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+17%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 74¢ 96¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+30%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 74¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-18%)
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 81¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 85¢ 89¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 84¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 82¢ 74¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 75¢ 67¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 82¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? No 93¢ 88¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 93¢ 80¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 80¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 76¢ 77¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $24 +$5 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $20 −$10 -48%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 14 $12 +$4 +35%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$7 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 −$9 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $33 +$11 +33%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $24 −$13 -52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $24 −$11 -44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $39 −$14 -35%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $24 $0 +2%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $44 −$4 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $37 −$5 -14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $161 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $20 −$5 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $58 +$4 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 03 $18 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $167 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 01 $37 −$3 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $34 +$2 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $152 +$5 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $57 −$7 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 31 $34 −$5 -14%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 31 $67 −$2 -3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 31 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $25 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $121 −$3 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 30 $80 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $15 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $24 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 97¢ $12 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 97¢ $11 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $10 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $21 12h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $14 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 44¢ $10 19h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 98¢ $16 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $20 26h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 81¢ $20 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $23 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 52¢ $14 34h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 82¢ $9 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $3 37h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $22 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 75¢ $20 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $0 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $19 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $9 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.83 · official $525.83 (match) · 1436 history records